A headline in the New York Times on September 28, 1997, read: "Crime Keeps on Falling, but Prisons Keep on Filling." Journalist Fox Butterfield further pondered the paradox: "It has become a comforting story: for five straight years, crime has been falling, led by a drop in murder. So why is the number of inmates in prisons and jails around the nation still going up?" Butterfield repeated his astonishment in January of 1998. "Despite a decline in the crime rate over the past five years," Butterfield reported, "the number of inmates in the nation's jails and prisons rose again in 1997." The accompanying graphic repeated the puzzling news: "The crime rate has gone down, but the number of inmates continues to rise."

And again in 2000, with ritual precision, Butterfield's headline read: "Number in Prison Grows Despite Crime Reduction." This time, however, there's a sign he may be tentatively grasping a rather simple point. "One major issue that the Justice Department's study did not address was whether there was any relationship between growth in the incarceration rate and the drop in crime. Advocates of tougher prosecution and sentencing say the huge growth in imprisonment, with the inharceration rate quadrupling since 1980, has been largely responsible for the decrease in crime."

The Times also pointed out one of the drawbacks of safer streets. "Drop in Crime Leaves Trauma Centers With Patient Shortage," read the headline, and the accompanying illustration featured the caption, "Too Many Centers, Not Enough Trauma." "With too few patients, trauma surgeons who must execute complex, life-saving maneuvers at high speed are unable to keep their skills honed," the report warned. One doctor said that he had been forced "to use more cadavers to educate medical students."

†